Santa Rally? Issachar remains focused on growth stocks with strong earnings and sales growth as the market favors this strategy. I anticipate this trend will persist. Risk management is key in my approach, and if the market shifts its focus away from growth, I plan to follow the lead of institutional investors. Since large institutions (hedge funds, pension funds, banks, and insurance companies) must keep their money invested regardless of the economic climate, capital is always seeking a place to grow. Issachar can adjust to 100% cash if risk increases or we enter a recession, depression, or bear market. Institutions employ top analysts paid to predict the future, and I strive to follow their trends, riding the wave until it’s time to sell. There’s always a wave somewhere; I aim to ride it with you. (There’s no guarantee that any investment will meet its objectives or avoid losses.)
Market Update: The major indexes are slightly extended, but there seems to be room for further growth. AI growth stocks are still leading the bull market, with the best performers gapping higher post-earnings on above-average volume. Stocks that gap higher and maintain their momentum signal that institutional money is entering, and they’re willing to pay a premium for the earnings growth they expect. Stock prices rise when investors price in future earnings expectations. Investors may accept higher price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples for stocks with higher anticipated growth to stay ahead of inflation and taxes. I assess a stock’s P/E ratio against its 5-year range to determine if it’s overpriced. Most growth stocks aren’t near the high P/E levels seen in 2021, which suggests there is still potential for growth in this new AI-driven bull market.
The market expects the Federal Reserve to reduce rates by 25bps this Wednesday, and I expect Jay Powell to deliver on this, avoiding any unwelcome surprises before Christmas. The 20-year long-term Treasury bond market has dropped around 5% since 12/6/24, causing yields to rise ahead of the expected Fed rate cut. This could indicate that inflation remains stubbornly high, signaling that the Fed may not lower rates. However, a politically driven Fed may act differently and lower rates anyway.
Housing stocks have fallen over 10% since 10/16/24, as rising mortgage rates (linked to Treasury yields) make homeownership more difficult for buyers. Many turn to rent as home buyers are priced out due to high mortgage rates. If home builders are not constructing new homes, it impacts sales of furniture and other goods associated with home buying. If this “multiplier effect” slows down, it could slow the broader economy, which is what investors are trying to anticipate when forecasting future earnings. The bond market is nearing a bottom, and yields may soon fall, which could help revive the housing market. This could be a critical week, with the possibility of a Santa Rally to finish the year strong!
Bottom Line: Issachar manages risk to minimize significant losses and capture most of the uptrend. The AI revolution is real, and we are only beginning to see how much potential lies ahead. I expect a Santa Rally at the end of the year. God is Good, and He Loves You! Merry Christmas!
Give thanks to the LORD, for He is good, for His steadfast love endures forever! Psalm 107:1
Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Issachar Fund. This and other important information about the Fund are contained in the Prospectus, obtained by calling 1-866-787-8355 or visiting IssacharFund.com. The Prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Issachar Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC., a member of FINRA/SIPC. Horizon Capital Management Inc. (HCM) is not affiliated with Northern Lights Distributors, LLC.
Important Risk Information: The Adviser invests in securities only if they meet both the Fund’s investment and values- based screening requirements, and as such, the returns may be lower than if the Adviser made decisions based solely on investment considerations. Mutual Funds involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. An investment in the Fund may not be appropriate for all investors. The Fund may hold cash positions when the Adviser feels that the market is not producing returns greater than the short-term cash investments in which the Fund may invest. There is a risk that the sections of the market in which the Fund invests will begin to rise or fall rapidly, and the Fund will not be able to sell stocks quickly enough to avoid losses or reinvest its cash positions into areas of the advancing market quickly enough to capture the initial returns of changing market conditions. The Adviser’s judgment about the attractiveness, value, and potential appreciation of particular asset classes and securities in which the Fund invests may prove incorrect and may not produce the desired results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Ratings are only one form of Fund performance and should not be used as the sole consideration in an investment decision. Opinions expressed are subject to change, not guaranteed, and should not be considered investment advice. There is no assurance these opinions or forecasts will come to pass, and past performance is no assurance of future results. For more information regarding the Fund, including current performance, please visit IssacharFund.com. NLD Compliance Code: 20241216-4100322