Issachar Update: Issachar went to an all-cash position after stops were triggered due to the yen “carry trade unwind” shakeout last Monday. I am waiting for one of the major indexes to go up at least 1% on greater volume before buying fundamentally strong stocks breaking out of sound bases. The S&P 500 index trades below its 50-day moving average (DMA), but the Nasdaq 100 index is below its 200-DMA, so risk is elevated. The indexes are in downtrends and need more time to repair if they are to resume their uptrends. I am building my watch list of stocks to buy if the market can regain its footing. Otherwise, I will sit patiently on defense. (There is no guarantee that any investment will achieve its objectives, generate positive returns, or avoid losses.)
Market Update: Japan suddenly decided not to raise rates after seeing its stock market drop about 12% in four days. Big hedge funds borrowed yen near 0% and leveraged that money to buy tech stocks, but rising rates in Japan triggered margin calls and massive stock market losses. The yen carry trade unwind is about 60% complete, so there may be more selling.
The Nasdaq 100 dropped about 14% from 7/10/24 to 8/5/24, so many AI leaders are now in downtrends. The AI revolution may take a breather while the AI stock leaders build new bases. If the indexes regain their 50-DMA, it may be with a new set of leaders that break out early, so keep your watch list ready with fresh ideas. I try to let the leaders pull me in when it is time to buy and push me out when it is time to sell.
The market believes the Fed has tamed inflation and expects the Fed to lower rates in September to avoid a recession. The inflation rate may have declined, but prices remain high because the dollar’s purchasing power continues to decline due to excess money being printed by the Fed. Congress deficit spends, and if the Fed did not monetize the debt, rates would be substantially higher. One of these days, the market will reject our irresponsible deficit spending, creating life-changing losses for investors who fail to manage risk.
Bottom line: Issachar is patently waiting in cash until the downtrend is repaired. I am building my watch list of stocks to buy if the market can start trading above its 50-DMA. Managing risk to avoid life-changing losses is critical to achieving long-term financial goals. Grace & Peace to Everyone!
This is my commandment that you love one another as I have loved you. John 15:12
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